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NEWS RELEASE
9/11/03
Lisa Trei, News Service: (650) 725-0224, lisatrei@stanford.edu
Appendix to the Stanford University/Knowledge Networks California Ballot Survey
Survey Results
The results below are presented in two sections: (i) for all respondents and (ii) for respondents indicating that they are registered to vote and are likely to vote in the special election.
(i)All Respondents (N=852)
Should Gray Davis be recalled as governor?
| Yes | 58% (493) |
| No | 42% (355) |
Recall vote by Party
| Dem | Rep | Ind/Other | |
| Yes | 40% (127) | 87% (200) | 55% (164) |
| No | 59% (187) | 13% (31) | 45% (134) |
If the governor is recalled, the candidate who receives the most votes will be elected as the new governor. Please select the candidate that you are most likely to vote for.
| McClintock | 6% |
| Huffington | 2% |
| Bustamante | 24% |
| Schwarzenegger |
37% |
| Ueberroth | 4% |
| Other (Write-ins) | 14% |
Candidate Preference by Party
| Dem | Rep | Ind/Other | |
| Bustamante | 47% | 5% | 15% |
| Schwarzenegger | 19% | 60% | 38% |
Candidate Preference by Gender
| Male | Female | |
| Bustamante | 22% | 26% |
| Schwarzenegger | 37% | 36% |
Candidate Preference by Race/Ethnicity
| A-Am | White | Hispan | Other | |
| Bustamante | 36% | 22% | 32% | 9% |
| Schwarzenegger | 22% | 41% | 30% | 43% |
(ii)Registered Voters Only (N=528)
Should Gray Davis be recalled as governor?
| Yes | 62% (329) |
| No | 38% (199) |
Recall vote by Party
| Dem | Rep | Ind/Other | |
| Yes | 42% (86) | 91% (158) | 57% (85) |
| No | 58% (118) | 9% (16) | 43% (64) |
If the governor is recalled, the candidate who receives the most votes will be elected as the new governor. Please select the candidate that you are most likely to vote for.
| McClintock | 8% |
| Huffington | 1% |
| Bustamante | 28% |
| Schwarzenegger |
40% |
| Ueberroth | 7% |
Candidate Preference by Party
| Dem | Rep | Ind/Other | |
| Bustamante | 55% | 3% | 22% |
| Schwarzenegger | 19% | 61% | 47% |
Candidate Preference by Gender:
| Male | Female | |
| Bustamante | 26% | 30% |
| Schwarzenegger | 43% | 38% |
Candidate Preference by Race/Ethnicity
| A-Am | White | Hispan | Other | |
| Bustamante | 62% | 24% | 40% | 17% |
| Schwarzenegger | 10% | 42% | 37% | 48% |
Methodological Note
The poll was conducted Aug. 29 to Sept. 8 using Knowledge Networks' web-enabled panel, which provides a representative sample of Californian households. Of the 1,429 adults invited to participate in the survey, 852 (60%) completed the survey in time for inclusion in the analysis. Of these, 549 (64%) respondents reported an intention to vote in the special election. Of these, 528 (96%) reported to be registered voters. The margin of error for the total sample of 852 adults is 3.4 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 528 registered and likely voters is 4.3 percentage points.
The candidate question was presented to replicate the question on the ballot. The 135 candidates were listed in the order determined by the California Secretary of State's alphabet drawing held Aug. 11, 2003. The official candidate list was rotated 80 times to represent the 80 State Assembly Districts in conformance with the Secretary of State's rotation plan. The option for a write-in candidate was presented last. Once the candidate list was rotated 80 times, it was returned to the candidate list for State Assembly District 1, and again rotated 80 times. This cycle was repeated for all interviews. Since there are more than 80 candidates, not every name has a chance to be displayed at the top of the list. For each candidate, the name and party affiliation were shown.
The survey results were weighted to U.S. Census population benchmarks for adults residing in the State of California in terms of age, race/ethnicity, education obtainment, and urban/rural.